The next pandemic will take place in 2080, according to a study

Another Covid-19 pandemic, which is expected to hit the world over the next 60 years, could become a much more common event on the planet, warns a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences .

Experts from the College of Padua in Italy have studied the spread of disease around the ecosphere over the past 400 years to predict future risks. They found that, statistically, extreme pandemics are not as rare as I thought, and the next one could be in 2080 .

The probability is 2% each year. This means that a individual born in 2000 would have about a 38% chance of experiencing a pandemic and will experience another by the age of 60 .

The team also found that the likelihood of another major pandemic is increasing and that we should be better prepared for the future .


Methodolog

Researchers used new arithmetic methods to measure the size and frequency of outbreaks without immediate medical intervention. His analysis has focused on plague, smallpox, cholera, typhus and a variety of new influenza bugs over the past four centuries. They found considerable variability in the rate at which pandemics occurred in the past, but also found patterns in the frequency of outbreaks. This allowed them to predict the possibility of events of a similar magnitude recurring smarttechpros.

“Understanding that pandemics are not that rare should increase the priority of prevention and control efforts in the future,” says William Pan of Duke University

 

Is there a chance that a pandemic could destroy all human life?

Experts have found that a pandemic of this caliber is statistically likely over the next 12,000 years.

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